Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 3.080003 3.702936 4.400772 5.237651 6.211049 7.304464 8.622478
2025-05-11 2.162467 2.943612 3.913948 5.196351 6.833617 8.839778 11.467876
2025-05-18 1.545997 2.346444 3.433463 4.992460 7.141094 9.964008 13.912051
2025-05-25 1.129867 1.892907 3.015138 4.744064 7.288431 10.833268 16.066700
2025-06-01 0.895140 1.637050 2.807118 4.724109 7.705854 12.067549 18.798967
2025-06-08 0.732457 1.452139 2.661584 4.755202 8.174469 13.392583 21.758444
2025-06-15 0.599765 1.284793 2.507461 4.735597 8.541744 14.578463 24.594531
2025-06-22 0.466189 1.082276 2.252014 4.497430 8.508928 15.117813 26.456949
2025-06-29 0.387342 0.967207 2.130857 4.469534 8.814206 16.210617 29.269971
2025-07-06 0.323386 0.867194 2.018563 4.436324 9.096840 17.278093 32.112626
2025-07-13 0.299458 0.851087 2.070631 4.722760 9.986323 19.450887 36.971269
2025-07-20 0.267567 0.808186 2.058245 4.876229 10.637459 21.251483 41.312477
2025-07-27 0.244157 0.782555 2.082599 5.115679 11.493494 23.514824 46.681709
2025-08-03 0.206928 0.710625 1.989085 5.090847 11.823415 24.842247 50.480691
2025-08-10 0.166924 0.618776 1.830009 4.895729 11.780127 25.459275 53.020902
2025-08-17 0.132271 0.531199 1.662712 4.653238 11.603574 25.795191 55.047835
2025-08-24 0.112780 0.485363 1.594334 4.634182 11.904885 27.089749 58.982438
2025-08-31 0.098009 0.450635 1.549156 4.664948 12.318478 28.639142 63.512145
2025-09-07 0.083872 0.413148 1.488259 4.645735 12.613516 29.963608 67.679650
2025-09-14 0.066379 0.355536 1.354371 4.411572 12.374625 30.143207 69.548392
2025-09-21 0.056652 0.325675 1.299662 4.384151 12.629049 31.395029 73.689069
2025-09-28 0.048281 0.298135 1.246191 4.351501 12.865719 32.623238 77.855113
2025-10-05 0.046589 0.301395 1.297933 4.633145 13.926511 35.757347 86.231241